When my blog boss first sent out the bat signal for NFL Week 1 pick blogs, I was confused.
What day is it? Did Saturday already happen? Has there been a glitch in the simulation?
You see, I don’t start thinking about NFL bets until Saturday has concluded and I’ve gotten a good night’s sleep.
I’ve already detailed how my college football Saturdays work in another blog, but what you must realize is that at the end of Saturday, my bookie usually has my nuts in a vice. I get a lot of hot tips that are just never fucking true.
“Hey, Lane Kiffin has the Oklahoma DBs in his pocket, hammer FAU the first half.”
Yeah, 42-0 in the first half and I’m down two units.
So my entire day revolves around racking up a tab of proportions that I just can’t afford to pay back. So you may be wondering, how do I keep my kneecaps intact and safe from the swing of a baseball bat?
The answer is NFL football, baby.
Sunday is a holy day for more reasons than just church. The first games start at 12 pm (I’m in the central time zone), and for good reason. They allow me to collect my thoughts and make some picks that I will need to get myself out of my hole and back to being no longer indebted to shadowy figures.
So that’s why I have the best picks. Not because I want them, but because I literally need them. Here are my locks for the week.
Buffalo at Baltimore (-7.5)/ Under (40.5)
If I haven’t told you, I don’t do research on my picks. It’s not ladylike. All my picks are gut feelings and in the NFL, it works for me. In this game, I’m just not seeing Nathan Peterman being about to put up much of a fight against the Ravens. LeSean McCoy has been distracted by legal issues and that’s the kind of shit that translates to the field. I can see this game being something like 21-10 with Baltimore winning, both the spread and o/u are safe.
Dallas at Carolina (-3)
I am a Cowboys fan, so let me say, take advantage of this tight spread before the Cowboys come out and start showing how bad they truly are. Dak Prescott is not good and I think Ezekiel Elliott will have a better season than last, but it’s not enough. There are simply no targets for Dak to throw to and Jerry Jones is a psychopathic megalomaniac. This might be my lock of the week.
Washington at Arizona (-1)
I was basically going to do picks for the early game, the afternoon game, then the prime-time games, but this jumped off the page at me. Washington has a lot of the same front office problems as Dallas and they have Alex fucking Smith at QB. Although I don’t think Sam Bradford is particularly good, I believe in Larry Fitz’s leadership and I think David Johnson is going to be a star this season. Even if Josh Norman locks down Larry Fitzgerald the entire game, I don’t see the Redskins offense getting the job done and all of the talent in the world won’t change the fact that Adrian Peterson is old. All of this and the fact that this game is pretty much a pick ‘em, I like Arizona all day.
My “Don’t Fucking Touch It” of the Week
Whatever you do, don’t touch the New England/ Houston game. For the last two years, New England has found a way to cover spreads more than any other team in the history of the NFL (please don’t fact check that). There is no game that could feel like more of a trap on either side. For one, the questions about Tom Brady’s age and the drama with Alex Guerrero and Bill Belichick have seemed like more of a soap opera than anything this offseason… or is it? On the flip side, it could just be fodder. NFL pundits making mountains out of mole hills because everyone wants to come at the throne. Deshaun Watson is now entering his second season and there’s a lot of buzz. JJ Watt has so much karma from singlehandedly saving the city of Houston, who know what he’ll do. There are too many storylines and too much to sift through for even hardcore betters to take a risk on this game. Just don’t touch it. There’s plenty of safe action out there this weekend. Or do. Ride the lightning.
So those are my picks. My blogmates made their picks based on money line bets which is insane because it’s too much for my brain to handle. You can’t talk units, you gotta talk decimal points. So best of luck to all my degennies out there. It’s the first full week of football, so pace yourself.