Chavy’s NFL Week 1 picks (The only picks you NEED to win)

If you’re like me and not burning your shoes, or cutting the swoosh off of your socks then you’re excited for the return of NFL football tonight. I don’t think I could ever give up watching the NFL, I LIVE for  football in the fall. Antonio Brown could steal my identity, fuck up my credit score, leak my nudes(sorry ladies I’m just hamming it up for the blog there’s no real nudes)  and I’d still find myself glued to the TV on Sunday afternoons. I digress though, I’m here to give you my picks for Week 1 of the NFL season. What you do with these picks is totally up to you. Could you use them as a guide to place your last-minute bets? Yeah, but I’d be the last person you’d want gambling advice from. Could you use them to show just how great or bad of an “analyst” I am? Yes, and when all my picks are winners this week I’ll just have two words for the doubters out there.


Will the other bloggers blog out their picks today? Tough to say, I have faith @tamcclanahan will, hell our resident golf degenerate @laffertydanny might, and @sylvan13 is coming back from the blogging afterlife to get his picks out today. So yeah with the NFL and College Football seasons in full force we’re in full force with the blogs here at Nosebleed Takes.

Atlanta Falcons (-105) vs Philadelphia Eagles (-115)


And the crowd goes….mild. I’ll be tuning into this game but I could think of a few better match-ups to make if I’m the NFL to kickoff the season. I’m picking the Eagles to win behind a stellar defense and a good but not great game from Big Dick Nick. I’m blaming my lack of excitement on solely on the Falcons because we don’t know what to expect from them this year. 0-4 in the preseason is a red flag considering they lost by 14 or more points in each outing, coupled with the Julio Jones fiasco and this team is looking at an 8-8 year. But hey at least you have reasonably priced concessions Atlanta! I’d take that over a Super Bowl any day!

Prediction: Eagles by whatever they want. FLY EAGLES FLY!


Cincinnati Bengals (+120) vs Indianapolis Colts (-140)


New year same Bengals is a tune I’m all too familiar with as a lifelong Bengals fan. Why do I subject myself to this torture every fall and winter you may ask? Because I’m a hopeless romantic. I look at that Bengals team and I still see 2015 12-4 AFC North winners, even though what was once a plump ripe ol’ caboose has turned into a moldy sack of potatoes. This is finally the year I finally put out feelers to the divorce lawyers to show the Bengals I mean business. I think the Bengals will get the hint and behind a somewhat rebuilt offensive line that will hopefully give Andy Dalton time to hit his favorite target Mr. AJ Green will have a great outing against the Colts. With Andrew Luck still having a bit of a question mark since he hasn’t played in a regular season game since 2016  look for the Bengals to squeak out a victory in the last few minutes much like they did last year when they won 24-23 on a last second pick six by Carlos Dunlap.

Prediction: Bengals by something crazy.

Buffalo Bills (+270) vs Baltimore Ravens (-340)


2 things tell me this game is going to be a blowout. Firs the money line, and second the fact the Bills named Nathan Peterman their starter. Nathan Peterman is notorious for throwing 5 INT’s against the Chargers last year in the FIRST HALF. Could Peterman top (or bottom out) this performance Sunday? I think so. Also the fact the Bills traded AJ McCarron to the Raiders for a 5th round pick shows just how much confidence they have in future QB Josh Allen. Confidence and stupidity sometimes go together like peanut butter and jelly and playing with only 2 active QB’s on the roster is a bold stupid strategy. I appreciate a good long con but I really do feel for the Bills mafia here. I can’t imagine there’s enough flaming tables, dildos, or Bud Light to cope with the dumpster fire that will ensue this season.

Prediction: Ravens by murder death kill 187


Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+340) vs New Orleans Saints (-480)


The Bucs suck and without Jameis Winston behind the center they might as well work at a Thai massage parlor with how bad they’ll suck. The Saints will be basically having the equivalent of a syllabus day to start the season and cruise to an easy victory.

Prediction: Saints slam the over (+49.5) with little to no help from the Bucs.


Houston Texans (+220) vs New England Patriots (-260)


Last years regular season match-up between these two teams saw both teams put their defense on the sidelines, letting the offenses engage in a good ol’ fashion shootout. While the Patriots  escaped with the 36-33 win this year’s game may be a totally different story. With Brady’s biggest threat from last years game gone to the Rams (it’s Brandon Cooks) and Edelman gone until week 5, I like the Texans to steal a victory from the Patriots this week. Call me bold, call me stupid for this pick, I call it instinct and I think know the Texans will pull off the “upset” this week.

Prediction: Texans by 10….because I have DeShaun Watson on my fantasy team.

San Francisco 49ers (+225) vs Minnesota Vikings (-265)


I want to see Jimmy G and the 49ers do great things this year I really do. With Kyle Shanahan being quoted as saying the Jerick McKinnon injury “changes things pretty drastically” I’d be concerned if I was a 49ers fan. I was ready to call 49ers a wild card contender before the season, now I’m leaning towards a slightly above .500 record with no playoff berth. Have no fear though 49ers fans as McKinnon will be back and giving Jimmy G more time to develop without the worry of trying to win a Super Bowl will payoff long-term. As for the Vikings, a major payout for a slight upgrade at QB is a bold move but with the return of Delvin Cook at RB they should have no trouble picking up where they left off last year.

Prediction: Vikings by a few……TD’s

P.S. watching Richard Sherman get torched by Stefon Diggs is enough for me to clear the schedule to watch this game.

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Yes Captain Kirk I do in fact like that.

Tennessee Titans (-125) vs Miami Dolphins (+105)


Ryan Tannehill 2.0 is back….but it won’t make that much of a difference for the Dolphins. This has all the makings of an average game on paper except for Derrick Henry. I expect Henry to flourish in his role as the RB1 of the Titans and if you have him on your fantasy team expect a big day from him.

Prediction: Titans by….do you really care?

Jacksonville Jaguars (-165) vs New York Giants (+145)


OBJ and Barkley against a stout Jags defense makes this an interesting game right off the bat, add in the battle between Bortles and Manning and this becomes can’t miss television. I’ll go ahead and slap my “Game of the Week” stamp on this game.


I expect the Giants offense to keep them in the game, but still expect the Jags take the victory after Eli throws a late game INT.

Prediction: Jags but don’t take my word for it, tune in and enjoy!

Pittsburgh Steelers (-210) vs Cleveland Browns (+175)


Cleveland will win a game at some point this year, just not this week. Even with Le’von Bell sitting out don’t expect the Steelers to somehow lose their offensive prowess and Cleveland to play lights out football. It may be a closer game than most expect, but never will the game be in doubt for the Steelers.

Prediction: Steelers by whatever score they want.

Kansas City Chiefs (+160) vs Los Angeles Chargers (-180)


This is a throwaway 4:05 game that is going to get cucked by the CBS featured game. So if you really care about this game fine I’ll give a prediction.

Prediction: However many fans are in the StubHub Center divide it by 2 and that’s how many people are tuning into this game. Oh yeah and Chiefs by 3 in an absolute bore of a game.

Dallas Cowboys (+130) vs Carolina Panthers (-150)


Now that I’m free to say this with no repercussions or threatening to withhold anything from me FUCK THE COWBOYS AND FUCK THEIR FAN-BASE! That actually felt pretty good to say. Okay putting my unbiased sports analyst hat back on I just think the Cowboys were a flash in the pan team that has fallen into the middle of the pack and will stay there for the foreseeable future. With Dallas coming off an 9-7 season while missing the playoffs and Carolina coming off an 11-5 season and a playoff berth it seems like a no brainer to pick Cam and co.

Prediction: Panthers throttle “America’s team”


Washington Redskins (EVEN) vs Arizona Cardinals (-120)


I like money line on this game for two reasons. One, it helps me write my prediction when I don’t know a lot about either team and two, it tells me that this may be a close/entertaining game. I’ll trust the line on this and go with the Cardinals spoiling Alex Smith’s regular season debut in a Redskins uniform.

Prediction: Arizona by a field goal.

Seattle Seahawks (+130) vs Denver Broncos (-150)


This is a game I’ll tune in for strictly to see the Seahawks offense vs the Broncos defense. I think the other side of the game will be a snoozer as Case Keenum will struggle early against a washed up Seahawks defense. As a guy who loves seeing good defenses in the NFL it has been a real shame to the Legion of Boom downgrade to (I had something for this).

Prediction: Seahawks by 7 in a close game….and look for Russell to get the “Goodies” as a post victory celebration.

Chicago Bears (+265) vs Green Bay Packers (-330)


The good news, Rodgers is back and he’s ready to show the world how great of a job the Dr’s did on his collarbone after last seasons injury. The bad news is he’ll be facing straight into the barrel of one scary motherfucker in Khalil Mack. I do think the Packers run away with this game pretty easily, but don’t rule out a few defensive TD’s to keep the Bears in the game especially with a game-changer like Khalil Mack on their team.

Prediction: Packers by 14, but they should’ve won by 24.

New York Jets (+235) vs Detroit Lions (-275)


J-E-T-S will lose this game. It’s the early Monday Night game, you’re probably not watching unless you’re a fan of either team.

Prediction: Lions by 10 in a boring game.

Los Angeles Rams (-210) vs Oakland Raiders (+175)


Home stretch we’re almost done with the predictions!

I think the line should be a ??? for the Raiders. Preseason aside I’m curious to see if Gruden actually knows what he’s doing when the games count. Trading away your best defensive player and coaching like it’s 2003 usually doesn’t spell Super Bowl contender or even playoff contender in 2018. I don’t think playing the Rams in your first game does you any favors either. Expect a few flashes of greatness from the Raiders but in the end it’ll be 30-27 on all the judges scorecards as the Rams cruise to an easy victory out west.

Prediction: Rams win, Raiders don’t.

P.S. I’d like to see ESPN bring in Frank Caliendo as Jon Gruden to commentate Jon Gruden coaching.

There’s my picks you can laugh at them, take them as gospel, parlay a 16 team wager, I don’t care.

Follow me on Twitter for my cheap takes on all things football this weekend.



While most slugs mate on the ground, the leopard slug engages in hours of foreplay with its mate before secreting a strong line of slime on which the lovers dangle while they do the deed. If their sexual organs get stuck, the female will chomp off the male’s penis in a process called “apophallation,” essentially leaving it to live the rest of his days as a female.


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